Score-based diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools in generative modeling, yet their theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this work, we focus on the Wasserstein convergence analysis of score-based diffusion models. Specifically, we investigate the impact of various discretization schemes, including Euler discretization, exponential integrators, and midpoint randomization methods. Our analysis provides the first quantitative comparison of these discrete approximations, emphasizing their influence on convergence behavior. Furthermore, we explore scenarios where Hessian information is available and propose an accelerated sampler based on the local linearization method. We establish the first Wasserstein convergence analysis for such a Hessian-based method, showing that it achieves an improved convergence rate of order eO( d/ε), which significantly outperforms the standard rate eO(d/ε2)of vanilla diffusion models.

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of adaptivity, although several works introduced practically efficient alternate procedures. In this work, we build upon recent ideas that rely on recasting the CP problem as a statistical learning problem, directly targeting coverage and adaptivity. This statistical learning problem is based on reproducible kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and kernel sum-of-squares (SoS) methods. First, we extend previous results with a general representer theorem and exhibit the dual formulation of the learning problem.

Imputation methods play a critical role in enhancing the quality of practical timeseries data, which often suffer from pervasive missing values. Recently, diffusionbased generative imputation methods have demonstrated remarkable success compared to autoregressive and conventional statistical approaches. Despite their empirical success, the theoretical understanding of how well diffusion-based models capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies between the missing values and observed ones remains limited.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distributionfree, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data-- e.g., from a generative model--to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPIprovably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPIyields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification--augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images--and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Ordering-based approaches to causal discovery identify topological orders of causal graphs, providing scalable alternatives to combinatorial search methods. Under the Additive Noise Model (ANM) assumption, recent causal ordering methods based on score matching require an accurate estimation of the Hessian diagonal of the log-densities. In this paper, we aim to improve the approximation of the Hessian diagonal of the log-densities, thereby enhancing the performance of orderingbased causal discovery algorithms. Existing approaches that rely on Stein gradient estimators are computationally expensive and memory-intensive, while diffusionmodel-based methods remain unstable due to the second-order derivatives of score models. To alleviate these problems, we propose Score-informed Neural Operator (SciNO), a probabilistic generative model in smooth function spaces designed to stably approximate the Hessian diagonal and to preserve structural information during the score modeling. Empirical results show that SciNO reduces order divergence by 42.7% on synthetic graphs and by 31.5% on real-world datasets on average compared to DiffAN, while maintaining memory efficiency and scalability. Furthermore, we propose a probabilistic control algorithm for causal reasoning with autoregressive models that integrates SciNO's probability estimates with autoregressive model priors, enabling reliable data-driven causal ordering informed by semantic information. Consequently, the proposed method enhances causal reasoning abilities of LLMs without additional fine-tuning or prompt engineering.

We propose a generalized score-based diffusion framework for learning multivariate Gaussian mixture models with homoscedastic or heteroscedastic noise. Our goal is to nonparametrically estimate the latent location distribution and denoise the observations.

Euclidean diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling across diverse domains, and they have been extended to manifold cases in recent advances. Instead of explicitly utilizing the structure of special manifolds as studied in previous works, in this paper we investigate direct sampling of the Euclidean diffusion models for general manifold-structured data. We reveal the multiscale singularity of the score function in the ambient space, which hinders the accuracy of diffusion-generated samples. We then present an elaborate theoretical analysis of the singularity structure of the score function by decomposing it along the tangential and normal directions of the manifold. To mitigate the singularity and improve the sampling accuracy, we propose two novel methods: (1) Niso-DM, which reduces the scale discrepancies in the score function by utilizing a nonisotropic noise, and (2) Tango-DM, which trains only the tangential component of the score function using a tangential-only loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our methods achieve superior performance on distributions over various manifolds with complex geometries.

Large language model (LLM) watermarks enable authentication of text provenance, curb misuse of machine-generated text, and promote trust in AI systems. Current watermarks operate by changing the next-token predictions output by an LLM. The updated (i.e., watermarked) predictions depend on random side information produced, for example, by hashing previously generated tokens. LLM watermarking is particularly challenging when next-token predictions are near-deterministic. In fact, over 90% of next-token distributions are low-entropy, with more than half of the probability mass on a single token.

The weighted controlled direct effect (WCDE) generalizes the standard controlled direct effect (CDE) by averaging over the mediator distribution, providing a robust estimate when treatment effects vary across mediator levels. This makes the WCDE especially relevant in fairness analysis, where it isolates the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome, independent of mediating pathways. This work establishes three fundamental advances for WCDE in observational studies: First, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of the WCDE, clarifying when it diverges from the CDE. Next, we consider nonparametric estimation of the WCDE and derive its influence function, focusing on the class of regular and asymptotically linear estimators. Lastly, we characterize the optimal covariate adjustment set that minimizes the asymptotic variance, demonstrating how mediator-confounder interactions introduce distinct requirements compared to average treatment effect (ATE) estimation. Using synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theory numerically, showing that the proposed optimal valid adjustment set yields the lowest variance at practical sample sizes. Our results offer a principled framework for efficient estimation of direct effects in complex causal systems, with practical applications in fairness and mediation analysis.

This paper studies the approximation and generalization abilities of score-based neural network generative models (SGMs) in estimating an unknown distribution P0 from n i.i.d.